The Black Swan - Thinking the impossible?
1st May 2007; 18:00
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A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics; it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. Why do we always ignore the phenomenon of Black Swans until after they occur? Are we hardwired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorise and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'?
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