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Three bad ideas: One, comment on the General Election on my blog (please don't report me to the Charity Commissioners!). Two, make a public prediction just before it can be shown to be completely wrong. Three, have confidence in Gordon Brown.

In for a penny, in for £30. I've just bet three tenners that Gordon Brown will win the debate starting in 45 minutes. I couldn't resist the odds of 11 to 1 (in a three horse race you wouldn't get such odds if one horse was missing a leg).

Here is my deranged prediction in full

Nick Clegg won't live up to debate one and will look a bit flaky on defence and Europe

David Cameron will do better but will also look like he is moving to the right and being a bit too aggressive on helicopters and Europe and debt

Gordon Brown will finally manage to seem a bit statesmanlike, winning the first half of the debate by gently explaining the realities of foreign policy and using the second half to get back to his favoured ground of the economy  

So, assuming you are reading this after the debate, on a 1 to 10 rating where 1 is a genius and 10 is an imbecile  how big a fool have I made of myself?

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